The Seattle Mariners exploded for 14 runs against the Marlins on Saturday, crushing them 14-0 with four homers from three different players. Jorge Polanco led the charge with two home runs of his own.
Now the Mariners face a quick turnaround with today’s 4:10 p.m. ET game.
Polanco’s been on fire lately, hitting homers in back-to-back games and in three of his last four. But is he worth betting on to go deep again today?
The odds say +550 for Polanco to homer against Marlins starter Max Meyer, who’s been pretty solid lately, keeping the ball in the park in three of his last four starts.
If you’re looking for some guidance on today’s MLB home run bets, there’s good news. A computer model that’s been crushing these predictions lately has some hot tips.
This model has been on an absolute tear, going 13-6 on top MLB picks since the season started. It even nailed all three of its home run bets on Wednesday, turning a nice parlay into a massive +9360 payout. Over the past 19 days, it’s called home run props correctly 12 times and is up 33.2 units.
Here are three homer bets the model loves for Sunday that could pay out $1,880 on just a $10 parlay at +18800 odds:
Mike Trout, Angels (+350)
The three-time AL MVP is tied for second in baseball with nine homers this season.
Trout’s biggest issue in recent years hasn’t been his talent—it’s been staying healthy. But when he’s on the field like he has been to start 2024, he’s still an elite power hitter.
He smashed 10 homers in just 29 games last season and already has nine in 26 games this year. That puts him on pace for about 57 home runs over a full season!
The Twins are starting Joe Ryan today, who just gave up three homers in his last outing.
"Despite Ryan being a RHP, he allows a slugging percentage almost 100 points higher to righties than to lefties," according to data analyst Jacob Fetner. "We would set the line at +290 for Trout to homer, and you’re getting strong value here on Trout, whose power is still amongst the league’s best when healthy."
DraftKings has the best odds at +350.
Sean Murphy, Braves (+600)
Atlanta’s catcher crushed his seventh homer of the season on Saturday, his third long ball in his last five games.
What’s crazy is Murphy has seven homers in just 15 games played this season. He showed his power potential last year when he hit 21 homers in 108 games and made the All-Star team.
Brandon Pfaadt gets the start for the Diamondbacks today.
"While Brandon Pfaadt has been really good as of late, he is still facing a powerful Braves lineup in a hitter-friendly park in Arizona," Fetner noted. "We set the line at +470 for Murphy to hit a home run."
BetMGM is offering this at +650, which is great value compared to Caesars’ +480. The parlay uses DraftKings’ +600 odds.
Brandon Lowe, Rays (+500)
Lowe finally broke his homer drought on Saturday, hitting his fourth of the season and first since April 5.
The 30-year-old second baseman started hot with three homers in his first eight games, and the model thinks he’s due for more power. It doesn’t hurt that Lowe is 2-for-3 with a double against Padres starter Randy Vasquez in his career.
"Lowe had 21 home runs in each of the last two seasons, but that came in 109 and 107 games, respectively," Fetner explained. "Lowe has 100 of his 130 career home runs against RHPs and while Padres’ starting Randy Vasquez hasn’t allowed a home run this season, he went just two innings in his last start and got hit around. We set the line at +440 for Lowe to hit a home run."
More MLB picks for Sunday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 78-37 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 10-4 over his last 14 MLB money line picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Sunday.
