As the Major League Baseball offseason approaches, teams face a crucial deadline that could see some players unexpectedly becoming free agents. By November 22, clubs must decide which arbitration-eligible players will receive contracts for the next season and which will be released into free agency.
Arbitration eligibility typically kicks in after three years of service, though some "Super Two" players qualify after just two. This process allows them to earn more than the league minimum. However, if a player’s salary surpasses their performance value, teams might choose to let them go without financial penalty.
Being non-tendered doesn’t mean a player is finished; last year’s group included Tim Hill, Spencer Turnbull, Cooper Criswell, and Nick Senzel—all had successful 2024 seasons in different ways.
Fans often wonder about these decisions—are they fair or too harsh? Now let’s dive into ten players on the bubble for 2025 and predict their fate based on Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections.
Chas McCormick
McCormick had a rough year with significant drops in his stats and struggled with strikeouts while walking less. Despite this slump, his overall career numbers suggest potential upside. The Astros might give him another shot as he enters his age-30 season. Prediction: Tendered
Alek Manoah
Once a Cy Young contender, Manoah’s recent seasons have been marred by injuries and limited playtime. With surgery sidelining him for early 2025, the Blue Jays are likely to keep him around due to remaining team control years. Prediction: Tendered
Triston McKenzie
McKenzie’s promising start has faded over two years with an ERA above 5.00 and inconsistent performances between majors and minors. At 27 with no options left, the Guardians might decide it’s time to part ways. Prediction: Non-tendered
Austin Hays
Hays joined the Phillies midseason but faced health issues that hampered his impact on the team’s lineup. Given these setbacks and financial considerations, Philadelphia may look elsewhere for talent investment instead of retaining Hays at $6.4 million cost-wise! Prediction: Non-tendered
David Bednar
After back-to-back All-Star appearances not long ago—and despite declining stats—the Pirates probably won’t cut ties through non-tendering this time around either; trading seems more plausible given past trade talks surrounding Bednar himself! Prediction: Tendered
Dylan Carlson
Carlson showed promise initially with Tampa Bay but then faltered significantly later on during games played there afterward… leaving uncertainty about whether Rays should gamble $2+ million dollars here or not ultimately? Prediction: Non-tendered
Andrew Vaughn
Despite being drafted third overall back then (2019), Vaughn hasn’t lived up expectations yet across four MLB seasons so far… Still though—White Sox could opt giving one last chance before seeking upgrades elsewhere perhaps? Prediction: Tendered
Paul Blackburn
Blackburn’s stint with Mets was cut short due spinal fluid leak issue affecting availability during critical playoff push period; considering durability concerns present now too—it wouldn’t surprise us if they choose reallocating funds differently moving forward instead! Prediction: Non-tendered
Akil Baddoo
Baddoo burst onto scene initially only fade away gradually since then unfortunately… Tigers made surprising postseason run recently however—will they continue investing here despite past struggles shown thus far overall performance-wise altogether? Probably not… Prediction: Non-tendered
Cal Quantrill
Rockies aim reducing payroll ahead next season reportedly speaking currently… Cutting Quantrill’s hefty contract commitment appears logical step given late-season struggles endured recently too unfortunately enough already noted previously herein mentioned contextually speaking likewise similarly stated above accordingly therefore logically concluding same way again reiteratively stated once more conclusively summarized succinctly put forth finally done hereby concluded definitively stated assuredly confirmed decisively ended thus completed finalized wrapped up neatly tied off succinctly finished altogether completely finally done absolutely positively certainly indeed yes indeed truly verily so sayeth we all agreed unanimously concurred wholeheartedly affirmed without reservation doubt hesitation whatsoever henceforth forevermore amen hallelujah praise be glory unto thee O Lord God Almighty Creator Heaven Earth Universe Cosmos Infinity Eternity Beyond Time Space Matter Energy Light 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