The Minnesota Twins are looking to break out the brooms against the Chicago White Sox on Thursday at Target Field. After grabbing the first two games with 4-2 and 6-3 victories, they’re eyeing their first series sweep of the season.
Both starting pitchers are still hunting for their first win of 2025. Chris Paddack takes the mound for Minnesota with a rough 0-2 record and 7.27 ERA, while Chicago counters with rookie Shane Smith (0-1, 2.82).
The White Sox have been in a serious slump, dropping nine of their last ten games.
This matchup is just one of nine MLB games on Thursday’s schedule. In Boston, Bryan Woo and the Seattle Mariners face Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox in their series finale. The Angels are trying to sweep the Pirates with Tyler Anderson going against Carmen Mlodzinski. And Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen visits Arizona to battle Corbin Burnes.
For bettors looking at the Twins-White Sox game, oddsmakers have set Paddack’s strikeout total at 5.5, while Smith’s sits at 4.5.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, really likes Smith’s chances to go over his strikeout total.
Top Pitcher Strikeout Props for Thursday
Shane Smith Over 4.5 strikeouts (+111) vs. Twins (1:10 p.m. ET)
The model gives this a strong 4-star rating and projects Smith to get exactly 5 strikeouts.
Smith has only gone over this number once in his first four big league starts, when he fanned six Guardians batters. In his other three outings, he’s recorded exactly three strikeouts each time.
But here’s why the over looks promising: Twins hitters have struck out seven times in each of their last four games. That trend could help the 25-year-old rookie set a new career high.
Garrett Crochet Under 7.5 strikeouts (-112) vs. Mariners (1:35 p.m. ET)
This prop gets an even stronger 4.5-star rating from the model, which projects Crochet for 6.2 strikeouts.
Crochet has been racking up Ks this season, tied for 11th in MLB with 35 strikeouts. He’s also facing a Seattle team that’s fanned 220 times, eighth-most in baseball.
The 25-year-old lefty dominated the Mariners last year, striking out 16 batters across 10 innings in two starts against them.
But here’s the catch – Crochet has only gone over 7.5 strikeouts twice in five starts this season. In his last outing against the White Sox, he finished with seven Ks over six innings.
Cole Ragans Under 8.5 strikeouts (-104) vs. Rockies (2:10 p.m. ET)
This is the model’s top pick of the day, earning a perfect 5-star rating. It projects Ragans for 6.8 strikeouts.
Ragans has been a strikeout machine this season, ranking fifth in MLB with 42 Ks over 27⅔ innings. He’s facing a Rockies lineup that fans a lot – they’re tied for second in the majors with 241 strikeouts.
After a slow start with just three strikeouts in his season debut, Ragans hit double-digit Ks in his next three starts.
However, he fell under this total in his last outing against Detroit, who ranks fourth in strikeouts. Plus, Colorado hitters only struck out seven times in their series opener against Kansas City.
