Today’s Top Strikeout Props: Back Mets Starter

Paul Skenes looks to bounce back after tough outing against Nationals

Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes will try to shake off his worst start of the season when he faces the Washington Nationals Monday night at PNC Park.

The 22-year-old gave up a career-high five runs in his last outing, a 5-3 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. It was an uncharacteristic stumble for the rookie sensation.

Skenes (1-1, 3.40 ERA) will square off against Nationals starter Brad Lord (0-0, 1.80) as both young pitchers look to make their mark.

This matchup is just one of ten games on Monday’s MLB slate.

Around the league, Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, last year’s AL Cy Young winner, takes on the Brewers. The Astros’ Framber Valdez faces Cardinals veteran Sonny Gray, while the struggling Dylan Cease and the Padres host the Cubs.

While sportsbooks have set Skenes’ strikeout total at 6.5 for tonight’s game, the SportsLine Projection Model isn’t particularly high on that bet, rating it just a 3 out of 5 stars.

Instead, the model has identified three pitcher strikeout props that offer much better value for today’s games.

Brad Lord Over 3.5 strikeouts (+138) vs. Pirates (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts

Lord’s MLB debut last week was impressive. The 25-year-old righty held the powerful Dodgers scoreless through three innings, allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out four.

He even made Shohei Ohtani look silly, striking out the superstar twice on swinging strikes.

Tonight, Lord faces a Pirates lineup that’s been swinging and missing a lot lately. Pittsburgh has racked up 151 strikeouts this season, the fourth-most in baseball.

Landen Roupp Over 4.5 strikeouts (+100) vs. Phillies (6:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.4 strikeouts

Roupp has been missing more bats this season. His strikeout rate has jumped from 8.4 K/9 last year to 10.8 this season.

He’s coming off a strong outing against Cincinnati, where he allowed just one run over six solid innings.

The timing looks perfect as he faces a Phillies lineup that’s been ice cold lately. Philadelphia has struck out 19 times in their last two games and been shut out twice in their last three.

Clay Holmes Over 4.5 strikeouts (-154) vs. Twins (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.4 strikeouts

Holmes has been electric since moving from the Yankees bullpen to the Mets rotation. He’s averaging a career-best 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings in his first three starts.

Last Tuesday was his masterpiece so far – Holmes fanned a career-high 10 batters in just 5.1 innings, including an impressive stretch where he struck out five consecutive hitters.

His 29.0% strikeout rate ranks among the best in baseball, suggesting his transition to starting has only made him more dangerous.