The Astros are looking to sweep the Blue Jays today at Daikin Park as they wrap up their three-game series. Houston has been on fire, shutting out Toronto 7-0 in the opener and following up with a solid 5-1 win on Tuesday.
They’re now gunning for their third straight win – which would be their longest streak this season.
Rookie Ryan Gusto takes the mound for Houston. The 26-year-old right-hander has been impressive since joining the rotation, posting a 2-1 record with a 3.18 ERA. He started his big-league career with four relief appearances before moving into a starting role.
Toronto counters with Bowden Francis, who’s put together a nice 2-2 record with a 3.13 ERA this season.
This matchup is just one of 15 games filling today’s MLB schedule.
The Red Sox are trying to stay hot as they go for their seventh win in eight games when Sean Newcomb faces Seattle’s Emerson Hancock. Arizona looks to make it three straight wins with Eduardo Rodriguez hosting Tampa Bay’s Taj Bradley. And Milwaukee sends Freddy Peralta to battle San Francisco’s Logan Webb in what should be a pitching duel.
For bettors interested in the Houston-Toronto game, the sportsbooks have set some interesting strikeout props. Francis’ total is at 4.5, while Gusto’s sits at 3.5.
According to SportsLine’s Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, both props rate highly on their five-star scale. Gusto going Over 3.5 strikeouts rates as a perfect 5, while Francis Over 4.5 comes in at 4.5 stars.
The model has found another strikeout prop with value today:
## Tomoyuki Sugano Over 3.5 strikeouts (+113) vs. Nationals (6:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts
Sugano has topped three strikeouts just once in his first four MLB starts after dominating in Japan for 12 years with the Yomiuri Giants. The 35-year-old has managed only three Ks across his last 11 2/3 innings after recording four strikeouts over 5 1/3 frames against Kansas City on April 5.
But there’s reason for optimism if Nathaniel Lowe is in Washington’s lineup today. Despite hitting a two-run homer in the series opener, Lowe struck out in his other three at-bats and ranks in the NL’s top 10 with 29 strikeouts.
## Ryan Gusto Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105) vs. Blue Jays (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts
Toronto hasn’t been striking out much this season – they’re tied for 27th in MLB with just 172 Ks.
But Houston pitchers have had their number in this series, fanning 11 Blue Jays in the opener and adding seven more strikeouts Tuesday.
Gusto only recorded two strikeouts over five innings against San Diego in his last start, but he punched out six batters across four frames against the Angels in his first career start. He’s also shown strikeout potential in relief, recording four Ks twice this month in a total of five innings.
## Bowden Francis Over 4.5 strikeouts (-112) vs. Astros (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.5 strikeouts
Francis has been a strikeout machine lately, going Over this number in each of his last three starts. He registered six Ks in 5 1/3 innings against the Mets before recording five against both Baltimore (5 2/3 frames) and Seattle (six innings).
The 29-year-old right-hander actually faced the Astros in his season debut, and he was dominant – fanning seven batters over 5 1/3 innings.
Houston has been vulnerable to strikeouts in this series, whiffing nine times in Monday’s opener and eight more yesterday. That gives Francis a great shot at notching at least five strikeouts for a fourth straight outing.
