The Houston Astros are taking another swing at landing Nolan Arenado, but this time around, there are some big questions about whether that’s actually a smart move.
The Astros tried to get the St. Louis Cardinals third baseman back in December, but Arenado shut it down using his no-trade clause. Now they’re back at it, though it’s not clear if he’s any more interested this time.
If it happens, the Astros would shake up their whole infield. Jose Altuve would head to left field, and Isaac Paredes (who they just got in the Kyle Tucker trade) would move to second base.
But here’s the thing – this isn’t the same Nolan Arenado we used to know.
He’s turning 34 soon, and last year was one of his worst at the plate. The numbers under the hood don’t look great either. His bat speed is down, he’s not hitting the ball as hard, and when he does make contact, it’s not as powerful as it used to be.
Sure, he’s still amazing with the glove at third base. That’s helped him stay valuable – he’s put up about 2.5 WAR in each of the last two seasons. But if his hitting keeps getting worse, that might not be enough to justify his contract.
Speaking of money, he’s still owed $74 million over the next three years. Even if the Cardinals chip in some cash, that’s a pretty big commitment for a player showing signs of decline.
Then there’s the domino effect. Moving players around might hurt the Astros’ defense, especially with Paredes, who hasn’t looked great at second base in his career.
It would also make life tougher for their young prospects like Jacob Melton, Brice Matthews, and Cam Smith to break into the lineup.
What’s really interesting is how this fits into the Astros’ bigger picture. They traded away Kyle Tucker this winter, which seemed like they were thinking about the future. But then they spent big on Josh Hader and Christian Walker, and now they’re chasing Arenado?
It feels like the front office might not be totally on the same page about whether they’re going all-in now or planning for tomorrow.
Maybe the best thing for the Astros would be if Arenado just says no again. Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make.
