Phillies-Cubs SGP Sunday: Expert Predictions

A pair of National League playoff contenders square off on Sunday Night Baseball when the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Chicago Cubs at historic Wrigley Field. The winner of this game also wins the series, with Philly sending Aaron Nola to the mound while the Cubs counter with Jameson Taillon.

The Cubs have jumped out to an impressive 17-11 start, while the Phillies sit at 14-13 after hitting a rough patch lately.

Chicago enters as slight favorites at -119 on the money line, with Philadelphia right behind at -101.

MLB betting expert Angelo Magliocca, who’s up an incredible 123.5 units over the last three seasons, has put together a three-leg parlay for tonight’s matchup. One of those legs banks on a Phillies infielder who’s been on fire at the plate this year.

Sunday Night Baseball Parlay (+275 on DraftKings)

• Total Under 9
• Cubs +1.5 runs
• Bryson Stott 1+ hits

Tonight’s rubber match at Wrigley comes after the Phillies finally snapped a five-game losing streak with yesterday’s win. That victory had to feel like a huge weight off their shoulders after a tough week.

The Cubs have been playing solid baseball, going 6-4 in their last 10 games while building a nice cushion in the NL Central.

Don’t be surprised if the Phillies use this momentum to get on a roll, especially with upcoming home series against the Nationals and Diamondbacks this week.

But first, they need to escape Chicago with a win tonight.

A lot of talk has centered around Aaron Nola’s struggles this season. His 6.43 ERA and 0-5 record look pretty awful, but there are signs he might be turning things around.

In his last start against the Mets, Nola was cruising with a quality start before things fell apart in the seventh inning. Before that, if you take out a nightmare four-run first inning in his previous outing, he’d actually put together almost 10 innings of solid pitching.

Sure, it sounds weird to cherry-pick stats for a former ace, but I’m looking for any positive signs here.

One of Nola’s biggest problems has been giving up home runs, but tonight’s chilly weather with the wind blowing in could make Wrigley play like a pitcher’s park. That might be exactly what he needs to keep the ball from flying out.

That’s why I’m taking the Under nine runs. With the weather conditions and both teams having their top bullpen arms available, I project this game closer to eight total runs.

I have the Cubs winning this one about 58% of the time, which gives us solid value on their money line. Since we’re building a parlay and expecting a low-scoring game, I’ll take Cubs +1.5 runs – even a close one-run loss would be a win for our bet.

Jameson Taillon has been rock-solid for Chicago since a rough first start where he allowed six runs in less than five innings. He’s pitched to a 3.22 ERA in April with opponents hitting just .193 against him.

Facing a patient Phillies lineup that works counts and draws walks against righties won’t be easy for him.

For our final leg, I’m going with Bryson Stott to get at least one hit. He’s been absolutely on fire, batting .312 in April and collecting hits in 16 of his 19 starts.

When batting at the top of the lineup, Stott’s average jumps over .300 with an OPS above .800 in those 17 games. He’ll get the most at-bats tonight, giving him plenty of chances.

While Stott went hitless against Taillon in three at-bats last year, he picked up a couple hits off him the previous season. Plus, I don’t think Taillon will continue shutting down lefties at his current .183 clip – especially when lefties hit .254 and .266 against him the previous two seasons. Stott seems primed to help with that regression.