The 2025 MLB season is officially underway after those two Cubs-Dodgers games in Tokyo, but the real action kicks off this Thursday with the traditional Opening Day when most teams play their first game.
It’s time for my annual look at win total betting lines to find some value picks. These are the over/under numbers from DraftKings that gamblers use to bet on whether teams will win more or fewer games than the line.
Here’s how all 30 teams stack up:
Dodgers: 103.5
Braves: 93.5
Phillies: 91.5
Mets: 90.5
Yankees: 89.5
Orioles: 87.5
Astros: 87.5
Red Sox: 86.5
Padres: 85.5
Rangers: 85.5
Cubs: 85.5
Mariners: 84.5
Twins: 84.5
Tigers: 83.5
Royals: 83.5
Brewers: 83.5
Guardians: 82.5
Rays: 81.5
Giants: 80.5
Reds: 78.5
Blue Jays: 78.5
Pirates: 77.5
Cardinals: 76.5
Nationals: 72.5
Angels: 71.5
Athletics: 71.5
Marlins: 63.5
Rockies: 58.5
White Sox: 53.5
Nothing jumps out as completely obvious – these lines are usually pretty accurate based on how teams look heading into the season. Even when you like a team more than others, it’s tough to bet confidently. For example, I’m picking the Royals to win the AL Central, but their line is set just one game below the Twins, and I could easily see them falling short.
But let’s dive into some picks anyway.
## Royals over 83.5 wins
They won 86 games last year, and I actually like them better this season. Sure, Seth Lugo will probably take a step back after finishing as Cy Young runner-up at 34, but I don’t see any other key players due for major regression. Their front office has shown they’ll be aggressive at the trade deadline and have made some smart deals recently.
I’ve got serious Royals fever this year – I’m even picking Bobby Witt Jr. for MVP and Cole Ragans for Cy Young.
## Twins under 84.5 wins
Most projection systems love the Twins to win the AL Central, and they definitely have the talent. My worry? Too many of their best players get hurt constantly, and we’re already seeing it with Royce Lewis injured again.
I also think the AL Central will be a tight four-team race where the winner barely reaches 90 wins. Since I have the Twins finishing fourth, they should definitely fall short of 85 wins.
## Rangers over 85.5 wins
The Rangers had one of baseball’s best offenses in 2023, and even though some regression was expected, everything completely fell apart last year. They’ve added Joc Pederson and Jake Burger to the lineup, plus they should get more from young stars Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. Veterans like Marcus Semien (coming off his worst full season since 2018) should bounce back too.
Their pitching staff gets Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle returning from Tommy John surgeries, while Cody Bradford looks like a promising young arm.
I’ve got Texas winning the AL West, and even if that’s with fewer than 90 wins, they’ll still clear 85.5.
## Mets under 90.5 wins
The National League is just tougher than the American League right now. The NL East has three World Series-caliber teams, and even the Nationals should be better than last year. Whoever finishes third among those top NL East teams probably won’t reach 91 wins because they play too many good teams.
I’ve got the Mets in third because I don’t trust their rotation enough, especially with the current injury issues. They might get hot late and make a playoff run, but I see them more as a mid-80s win team than a 91-win team over the full season.
## Red Sox over 86.5 wins
Boston went 81-81 last year and has plenty of reasons to improve. They signed Alex Bregman and should get a full season from Trevor Story. Tristan Casas missed a huge chunk of last season too. The rotation adds Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler (who looked terrible in the regular season but like his old self in the playoffs), and gets Lucas Giolito back from injury.
This might sound crazy, but I’m actually picking the Red Sox to win the AL East. Even if I’m wrong, 88 wins and a wild-card spot seems very reasonable. I love this over.
## Yankees under 89.5 wins
Gerrit Cole is already done for the season. Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt are currently hurt. Everyone knows Giancarlo Stanton is injury-prone, but they might not get anything from him at all this year.
They do have some good pieces like Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr., but a friend of mine called this an “82-win team stapled to Aaron Judge,” and I can’t argue with that. If Judge gets hurt? That offense won’t scare anyone.
I’ve got the Yankees grabbing an AL wild card, but falling short of 90 wins.
## White Sox over 53.5 wins
The White Sox are my worst team in baseball, and they might well lose the most games this season. But people don’t realize just how incredibly bad – and unlucky – a team has to be to lose as many games as they did last year.
Getting to 54 wins would be a 12-game improvement, but many stats suggested they weren’t actually as bad as their record showed last year. Things just snowballed.
Only 32 teams in MLB history have lost 109+ games in a season. In the Wild Card Era (since 1995), only 10 teams have done it. And back-to-back 109+ loss seasons? That’s only happened twice: the Philadelphia A’s (1915-16) and the expansion Mets (1962-65).
Remember last year when everyone knew the A’s would be terrible again after losing 112 games? They won 69 games in 2024.
Even the infamous Astros teams from a decade ago went 56-106, 55-107, and 51-111 during their worst years. Most truly awful MLB teams still win more than 54 games.
Here’s a crazy stat: the White Sox went 5-34 against the Royals, Twins, and Tigers combined last year. That’s a full-season pace of 21-141! They absolutely won’t have such horrible luck against their division rivals again.
FanGraphs projects them for 63 wins, while PECOTA has them at 62.6. Both comfortably above this line. The White Sox are terrible and will still hit their over.
