MLB Trends: Yankees’ Struggles, Hader’s Issue

The All-Star break for MLB is next week, and the trade deadline is not far behind.

As summer heats up, teams are starting to show if they’re real contenders or just pretenders. But many teams are still in the middle of the pack as we approach the Midsummer Classic. Here are three key MLB trends you should know.

Josh Hader’s Home Run Woes

Josh Hader’s first year with the Astros under a five-year, $95 million contract isn’t going great. He has a 4.15 ERA over 39 innings, mainly because he gave up nine earned runs in his first 9 2/3 innings and surrendered eight home runs so far, including a walk-off to Christian Vázquez last Sunday.

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Hader’s home run rate is now 1.85 HR/9, compared to last year’s 0.48 HR/9 when he allowed only three homers in 56 1/3 innings. “Last year I was able to execute at the top of the zone more often,” Hader said after giving up that walk-off homer to Vázquez (via MLB.com). This year he’s pitching more in the zone, making it easier for hitters to connect with his fastball.

Fans might think it’s frustrating watching such a talented closer struggle this much.

Hader usually pitches up in the zone with his sinker for success but hasn’t been doing that this year. Instead, he’s pitching down more often which isn’t working for him—hence all those home runs. His average exit velocity on sinkers increased from 85.7 mph last year to 90 mph this year.

He believes his issues are mechanical rather than intentional changes: “Last year I was able to execute at the top of the zone a lot more often.” Fixing these problems mid-season can be tricky though; otherwise, he would have done it already.

Why Aaron Civale Could Thrive With The Brewers

Last week, Milwaukee acquired Aaron Civale from Tampa Bay for minor-league infielder Gregory Barrios. Civale had an underwhelming stint with Tampa Bay—5.17 ERA despite striking out over 25% of batters faced—but struck out eight Dodgers in five innings during his debut with Milwaukee while also allowing four runs including three homers.

Civale embodies modern baseball: lots of strikeouts but also lots of home runs due to being an extreme fly-ball pitcher (32.5% grounders). Milwaukee’s superior outfield defense could help him reduce those homers though; they rank high defensively compared to Tampa Bay:

| | Brewers | Rays |
|——————–|———|——|
| Defensive Runs Saved | +33 (6th) | -16 (24th) |
| Outs Above Average | +23 (2nd) | +1 (15th) |
| Outfield DRS | +13 (3rd) | -1 (17th) |
| Outfield OAA | +10 (3rd) | +7 (8th) |
| BABIP on Fly Balls | .078 (1st)| .095 (6th)|

However, there’s potential downside too since American Family Field inflates homers more than Tropicana Field does according to Statcast park factors—114% league average vs league average respectively—which means Civale might give up even more homers despite improved defense behind him.

The Painfully Slow Yankees

Things aren’t looking good for New York lately—they started strong at 49-21 but then hit a rough patch going into Tuesday’s game with six wins out of their last twenty-two games! Pitching struggles aside; hitting woes include slumps from stars like Aaron Judge & Juan Soto plus sloppy play overall—it’s bad!

One glaring issue throughout has been their lackluster base-running skills—they took a twenty-game stolen base drought into Tuesday—their longest since ‘64—and aren’t good at other aspects either:

| | Yankees | MLB Avg |
|———————-|————|———–|
| Stolen Bases | 37(29th) |65 |
| SB Success Rate |70%(28th ) 78% |
| Sprint Speed 26ft/s(30th)|27ft/s |
Home-to-first time 4s(30th ) 4s
Extra-base taken rate 36%(30 th ) 42 %
Baserunning Value -10runs(30 th ) 0runs

With Jon Berti injured & Anthony Volpe struggling offensively (.202 OBP over last twenty-six games), there isn’t much speed threat left either—not helped by cautious base-running due having Soto/Judge coming up next!

Their offense relies heavily on slugging—they’re second-highest team homer-wise/fourth-highest slugging percentage-wise—but if opponents keep them inside-the-park then generating offense becomes nearly impossible without any running game whatsoever!

What do you think about these trends?