It’s Friday, which means it’s time for another round of betting picks – or as I like to call it, Friday Night Lines.
Last week we went 1-1 on our main bets. Not terrible, but we’re aiming higher. The goal is to either go 2-0 or hit that home run play for a big payday.
We’ve got 15 games today with 14 of them under the lights, so let’s focus on the evening slate. All lines come from BetMGM.
## Phillies -1.5 (+105)
This matchup features two big-name pitchers – former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara for the Marlins against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. Neither has put up ace-level numbers so far, but I expect Wheeler to turn things around quickly.
Wheeler’s recent struggles don’t tell the whole story. He’s much better than his last two starts suggest, and the Marlins’ weak offense won’t pose much of a threat. Plus, he’s been dominant at home – posting a stellar 2.31 ERA in Philadelphia last year and looking sharp in his only home start this season.
Alcantara, meanwhile, is still finding his form after Tommy John surgery.
The once-dominant workhorse who led MLB in complete games in 2022 and 2023 has only managed 15â…“ innings across three starts with a 4.70 ERA. He’s typically solid through the first three innings but falls apart after that.
The Phillies’ powerful lineup is perfectly positioned to pounce once Alcantara starts to tire.
The Marlins’ 8-7 record is misleading – they’re not nearly as good as that suggests. They just got swept at home by the Diamondbacks, and I expect that slide to continue in Philadelphia.
I’m confident the Phillies win this by multiple runs, and I love getting plus money on it. I’d make the same play all weekend, though we’ll only get these favorable odds today because of Alcantara’s name value.
## Blue Jays team total over 3.5 (-130)
Toronto’s offense has looked better this season in terms of hitting for average and getting on base. The power just hasn’t fully arrived yet from their big bats.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally hit his first homer of the season in his last game, while Bo Bichette is batting .305 with eight doubles but hasn’t gone deep yet. Even Anthony Santander with just two homers suggests this lineup is due for a power surge.
The Blue Jays are averaging 4.5 runs per game at home.
Mariners starter Bryan Woo shows a clear home/road split in his young career – 2.62 ERA at home versus 4.08 on the road. He’s been excellent in Seattle this season but allowed four runs in six innings in his only road start, which came in pitcher-friendly San Francisco.
The Blue Jays squared him up well last season, even in Seattle.
Bonus factor: The Mariners’ bullpen had a rough series in Cincinnati with no day off to recover.
## Home run play: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+500)
Guerrero has only faced Woo three times in his career, but one of those at-bats resulted in a homer in Seattle. He just snapped an 18-game, 81-plate appearance homerless streak with a blast against Spencer Strider.
When Vlad gets hot, the homers tend to come in bunches. Last June, he clubbed six homers in a nine-game stretch. I’m jumping on this opportunity right now. Take us home, Vladdy!
## Bonus home run play: All the lefties in Wrigley
The lone day game features the Diamondbacks at Cubs in Chicago with the wind absolutely howling out. Two right-handed pitchers are starting, and Wrigley has become much more favorable to left-handed hitters in recent years.
If you’re looking at home run props, check out lefties like Corbin Carroll, Josh Naylor, Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Speaking of which…
## Futures play: Pete Crow-Armstrong to lead MLB in SB +1100
Just a small bet here, please. Elly De La Cruz remains the favorite at +105, and he’ll probably finish on top.
But Crow-Armstrong is showing real promise. He’s just one stolen base behind the league leaders with seven so far. The Cubs lead MLB in stolen bases, so it’s clearly part of their strategy this year.
Batting seventh puts him in a perfect spot to run without worrying about taking the bat out of a star’s hands. He went 27-for-30 in steal attempts last season in just 410 plate appearances with a .286 on-base percentage. His OBP is up to .310 now, and he’s looking more comfortable at the plate.
His elite defense and baserunning mean he’s never leaving the lineup – he’s played every inning of the Cubs’ 21 games so far.
Don’t go crazy with your bet size, but at +1100, there’s real value here. Pete might just bring this one home.
