MLB Friday Best Bets: Judge Dominates Berríos, Padres Cruise

Good Friday, baseball fans! I love Fridays, and I bet you do too. It’s time for our weekly betting picks, where we’ll hunt for some Friday night winners.

We’re looking to improve on our 1-1 record from the past couple weeks. Tonight gives us plenty of options with 14 evening games to choose from. Let’s dive into some promising plays using Draft Kings odds.

Aaron Judge over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (-110)

This prop is usually set at just 1.5, but Judge averages a whopping 3.52 hits plus runs plus RBI per game. So even at 2.5, we’ve got value.

Judge is an absolute monster, especially at Yankee Stadium where he truly thrives.

José Berríos takes the mound for the Blue Jays, and Judge flat-out owns him. He’s 11 for 32 lifetime against Berríos with four homers in recent seasons.

The bottom line? Judge is a menace against pretty much everyone, but he’s been particularly brutal on Berríos.

Padres -1.5 (+154)

The Padres are practically unbeatable at home this year. They’re 12-1 at Petco Park with a ridiculous +48 run differential.

Meanwhile, the Rays are struggling. They’re 7-13 in their last 20 games and have dropped six of their last nine.

Tampa Bay had to play a night game Thursday before traveling, while San Diego enjoyed a day off. The Rays did rally to win last night, which might actually help us – they’ll be less desperate coming into this one.

The pitching matchup heavily favors San Diego too. Michael King has emerged as a legitimate ace, and he’ll have a fully rested bullpen behind him. The Rays counter with Shane Baz, who just got hammered by the Yankees his last time out.

At +154, we’re getting great value on what looks like the most likely outcome – a multi-run Padres win.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 7.5 strikeouts (+120)

The Pirates have one of the worst, most strikeout-prone offenses in baseball. And guess what? Not a single player on their roster has ever faced Yamamoto in a regular season or playoff game.

Yamamoto’s stuff has been absolutely filthy lately. He struck out nine Cubs (baseball’s best offense so far) in six scoreless innings. Then he fanned 10 Rangers in seven shutout frames last Friday.

With that devastating splitter against a terrible Pirates offense? We should see plenty of swings and misses tonight.

Home run play: Pick an Athletics hitter

Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park has been a home run paradise this season. The A’s have their share of power threats throughout the lineup.

White Sox starter Sean Burke has already surrendered six homers in just 21⅔ innings this year. When he faced Oakland on April 15, he gave up two homers and five runs in less than four innings – and that was in Chicago.

Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, and Shea Langeliers have all taken Burke deep before. And don’t sleep on rookie Nick Kurtz, who crushed seven homers in just 20 Triple-A games before his call-up.

I’m particularly drawn to Soderstrom (+370), Rooker (+295), and Kurtz (+550) tonight.

Futures play: Zack Wheeler to win Cy Young, +1200

I picked the Royals’ Cole Ragans in the AL and the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler in the NL for Cy Young before the season started. I’m sticking with both, though Ragans did struggle yesterday.

Wheeler is in a sweet spot right now. He’s pitched well enough to keep me confident, but started just slowly enough to give us these juicy +1200 odds. That’s too good to pass up.