MLB Opening Day 2025 is finally here, and all eyes are on the Los Angeles Dodgers fresh off their World Series win last year.
The Dodgers already kicked off their season by sweeping the Cubs in Tokyo earlier this month, but they’ll celebrate their championship properly with Opening Day at Dodger Stadium on Thursday against the Tigers.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Dodgers are -164 favorites, with the over/under set at just 6.5 runs in what could be an epic pitching duel between former Cy Young winners Blake Snell and Tarik Skubal.
Elsewhere, Juan Soto makes his highly anticipated Mets debut in Houston, with the Astros favored at -130 and an over/under of 8 runs.
SportsLine’s model has crunched the numbers for every Opening Day matchup and found three picks that could pay off big. Combined into a parlay, these picks would deliver a sweet 6-1 payout.
The model isn’t just guessing either—it’s on a 32-17 hot streak on top-rated MLB run line picks since 2023 after simulating each game 10,000 times.
## MLB best bets for Opening Day 2025
### Tigers money line over the Dodgers (+142 at FanDuel)
Score prediction: Los Angeles 4.3, Detroit 4.1
The model technically has the Dodgers winning by a hair, but there’s too much value on the Tigers to pass up, especially with this pitching matchup.
Skubal was absolutely dominant last season, winning the pitching triple crown on his way to his first AL Cy Young award. The Tigers went an impressive 21-10 when he started.
Snell is one of baseball’s best lefties too, but he’s had arm problems lately. Remember how he didn’t even pitch into the fifth inning until July last season?
The model gives Detroit a 45% chance of winning, which is better than the 41.3% implied by the odds—making this a smart value bet.
### Diamondbacks money line over the Cubs (-126 at FanDuel)
Score prediction: Arizona 5.1, Chicago 4.9
The D-backs won the 2023 NLCS and actually improved by five wins last year, but still missed the playoffs in a stacked National League.
They’re handing the ball to Zac Gallen, who’s been Mr. Reliable with a career 3.29 ERA and nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings.
The Cubs are countering with Justin Steele, but current Arizona hitters have crushed him to the tune of a .338 batting average and .486 slugging percentage.
The model gives Arizona a 56% chance of winning, making this a solid play at the current price.
### Mariners money line over the Athletics (-164 at FanDuel)
Score prediction: Seattle 4.6, Athletics 3.3
This is the model’s strongest pick of the day, earning an A-rating with Seattle winning in 71% of simulations—way above the 62.1% implied by the odds.
It’s not hard to see why. The Mariners have won 85+ games four straight seasons and have absolutely owned the A’s during that stretch with a ridiculous 47-17 record against them.
Luis Severino was a nice pickup for Oakland, but he struggled this spring with a 6.00 ERA. Plus, his durability is a huge question mark after barely pitching from 2019-2023.
Meanwhile, Seattle’s Logan Gilbert is an innings-eating machine who led the American League with 208 2/3 innings last year. He’s thrown at least 185 innings three years running.
### Want more MLB picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s best bets for MLB Opening Day 2025. Now, get run line, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated each game 10,000 times.
