Francisco Lindor is on fire right now, smashing four home runs in his last four games as the Mets shortstop heats up after a slow start to the season. He crushed two homers on Monday against the Phillies, and conditions look perfect for more power hitting when the NL East rivals face off again Tuesday night.
The forecast calls for 72-degree temperatures with 10 mph winds blowing out to right-center field at first pitch (7:10 p.m. ET). That’s the kind of weather that makes home run hitters smile.
Betting markets have noticed Lindor’s hot streak. FanDuel Sportsbook has him at +520 to hit another homer tonight, while DraftKings is offering +4500 odds if he manages another two-homer performance.
But is Lindor worth adding to your home run picks today?
SportsLine’s computer model might have the answer. It’s been on an impressive 13-6 roll on top-rated MLB picks since the season started. The model has been particularly hot with home run calls lately, successfully predicting at least one homer on five straight days last week before nailing Elly De La Cruz (+700) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (+475) to go yard on Sunday.
In fact, the model has correctly called a home run prop in 10 of the last 14 days and is up 29.15 units during that stretch.
Now, SportsLine’s team has revealed their projections for Tuesday’s most popular home run props. These three picks can be parlayed for massive +14994 odds, potentially turning a $5 bet into $754.69 at BetMGM.
Jose Ramirez, Guardians (+560)
FanDuel offers the best overall price here, though we’re using +525 in our BetMGM parlay. Ramirez has transformed from a utility player early in his career into one of baseball’s most complete infielders. The switch-hitter tied his career high with 39 homers last season and already has five this year with an impressive .863 OPS.
"I like this matchup against Will Warren who is coming off a start where he lasted just 1 2/3 innings," says SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner. "Ramirez loves playing against the Yankees and has 12 HRs in 61 games against them to go with a .968 OPS."
Cal Raleigh, Mariners (+360)
Power has defined Raleigh’s career. He’s blasted 91 home runs over the past three seasons and already leads MLB with nine homers this year. The Mariners value his bat so much they’ve been using him as DH on days he’s not catching.
Tonight in Boston, he’ll hit from the left side against Red Sox righty Brayan Bello, with the wind blowing straight out to right field.
"Raleigh has six of his nine HRs this season against right-handers, but his .825 OPS against lefties this season is encouraging for when lefty relievers come in to face him," Fetner noted. "We have Raleigh at +268 to homer in our model, the best line of any player today."
BetMGM has the best odds for this home run prop at +360.
Jonathan Aranda, Rays (+450)
The 26-year-old Mexican is finally getting regular playing time after brief stints with the Rays in each of the last three seasons, and he’s making the most of it. Aranda is crushing the ball, hitting .355/.438/.677 with four homers, eight doubles and 13 RBI in 22 games.
His power numbers are eye-popping. Aranda’s 95.1 mph average exit velocity ranks in the 96th percentile among MLB hitters, while his incredible 60.8% hard-hit rate sits in the 98th percentile.
"Aranda has been incredibly good against RHPs this season, batting .404/.456/.788 with four HRs in 52 at-bats," Fetner explained. "I think getting this price at +450 on Aranda in the HR friendly environment in Arizona is a solid bet considering we would set his line at +370."
DraftKings offers the best price at +450.
More MLB picks for Tuesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 67-30 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is 10-6 on his last 16 MLB ATS picks and you can find all his latest selections here.
