Yankees’ Aaron Judge smashed his 300th home run on Wednesday night.
He achieved this milestone in just 955 games, faster than Ralph Kiner’s 1,087 games. Though injuries delayed his progress, Judge’s power and long-term contract suggest he could climb high in the record books.
Let’s break down what this means for the future.
Age
Players today often perform well into their late 30s. Hank Aaron was once an exception, but now we see more sluggers like Albert Pujols and David Ortiz hitting many home runs after turning 32. Ken Griffey Jr., despite injuries, managed to hit a significant number of homers past that age too.
On the flip side, Miguel Cabrera hit a lot fewer homers as he aged. Fans might wonder if Judge will follow a similar path or continue strong .
Strength
Judge isn’t just strong; he’s a powerhouse at 6-foot-7 and around 280 pounds of muscle. Even when he doesn’t fully connect with the ball, it still often ends up over the fence. Check out this massive shot:
https://streamable.com/m/aaron-judge-homers-52-on-a-fly-ball-to-left-center-field?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share
These kinds of hits would be doubles or flyouts for other players but are home runs for him thanks to Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch:
https://streamable.com/m/aaron-judge-homers-25-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-center-field-wsigdk?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share
Fans believe Judge will age well in terms of hitting home runs, similar to David Ortiz who kept smashing homers even after turning 32.
Injury History
Judge has had his share of injuries but has been more durable recently, playing most games in the last few seasons. He missed some time last year due to a toe injury that might need ongoing care. However, there haven’t been any signs of trouble this season.
Fans probably think it’s hard to predict how injuries will affect him long-term.
Projecting Where Judge Finishes
If Judge continues at his current pace, he could end this season with about 57 home runs, bringing his career total to 314 before next year starts. With seven years left on his contract and averaging around 42 homers per season moving forward (considering age and potential injuries), he could reach about 482 by the end of four years.
By then, he’d be close to hitting his milestone of 500 home runs as he enters his age-37 season with three years left on his deal. If we assume he’ll average around 25 homers per year during those final three years, that’s another 75 added to his total—bringing him up to approximately 557 by contract’s end.
Fans might think it’s tough predicting exactly where he’ll land among all-time greats like Barry Bonds (762) or Hank Aaron (755). But here’s where Judge could realistically fall:
Jim Thome: 612
Sammy Sosa: 609
Frank Robinson:586
Mark McGwire:583
Harmon Killebrew:571
If things go well and he stays healthy enough for another one-year deal post-contract, surpassing Frank Robinson seems possible but reaching beyond that may be challenging without extending himself further into older age seasons just chasing numbers alone!
What do you think? Will Judge make it into top ten all-time?
