Oh boy, did you hear about the Brewers last week? They went ahead and traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. Yep, snagged two young players and a draft pick in return. Took a bit, but Burnes is now following Tyler Glasnow’s footsteps, heading out as this winter’s second major starting pitcher trade. Remember Glasnow? Moved from the Rays to the Dodgers back in December. Crazy times.
Burnes and Glasnow weren’t the only big names floating around in trade talks. Nope. Shane Bieber and Dylan Cease were also in the mix. Bieber’s situation, well, that got messy because of his injury-riddled season. But Cease? That’s a head-scratcher. The guy’s a year out from almost snagging the Cy Young. He’s got that “wow” factor on the mound and is under control until after the 2025 season. Seemed like a no-brainer he’d be on the move when winter rolled around.
But here we are, pitchers and catchers about to report, and Cease is still rocking a White Sox uniform. Will he still be there next week? Next month? Chris Getz, the new head honcho for the Sox, gave one of those “who knows?” answers in January. Basically said it’s all up in the air, depends on what the other teams want. It’s a big ol’ mystery, really. But between you and me, we’re kinda expecting the White Sox to make a move before Opening Day. Here’s why.
1. The White Sox are wretched
Let’s not sugarcoat it. The White Sox were pretty bad last season. Only won 61 games. Their run differential? Minus-200. Ouch. Only a couple other teams managed to do worse. They’ve picked up some new faces since, but nothing game-changing. Both Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs aren’t seeing much hope for them this year either. Looks like they’re pegged to be at the bottom of the AL Central again.
If the Sox were looking a bit more promising, maybe hanging onto Cease would make sense. But, let’s be real. They’re not. So, it’s easier to see the bigger picture.
2. Trade is best, if not only, way forward
It’s not just about this year. Looking ahead, the Sox don’t seem like they’ll be contenders next year either, especially with Cease nearing free agency. They did snag some promising players at the deadline, which is great for the farm system. But even if those prospects hit the ground running, timing won’t line up with Cease’s free agency.
So, what about extending Cease? The Sox will have some cash to play with next year, sure. They could cut ties with Moncada and Jiménez, freeing up around $40 million. Cease could command a hefty sum, though. And given the Sox’s history with big contracts, well, don’t hold your breath.
3. Cease’s trade value may only decline
Here’s the kicker: Cease’s trade value is probably as high as it’s gonna get. Teams nowadays are all about that surplus value. They’re more willing to trade top prospects for two seasons of control rather than less. So, waiting might not do the Sox any favors.
Sure, there’s a chance Cease could have a stellar first half, boosting his value. But it’s a gamble. Pitchers get injured. And if Cease doesn’t live up to his 2022 performance, his stock could drop.
Trading a player at their peak value isn’t always straightforward. There are a lot of factors at play. But all signs point to the Sox being better off trading Cease sooner rather than later. Doesn’t mean it’ll happen, but it probably should.
