It’s been a long, long nine years since the Pittsburgh Pirates have danced in the postseason spotlight. And even longer, 11 years, since they’ve managed to score a run when it mattered most in October. Now, we’re staring down the barrel of year five under GM Ben Cherington’s watchful eye. They say there’s a reason it’s called a five-year plan. If you’re not on track by then, well, you’ve missed the train.
“We have to keep working at (getting better). We can’t take anything for granted,” Cherington spilled to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review last month. His words, a mix of determination and a dash of hope, echo the sentiment of a man on a mission. “We’ll keep working at it both in terms of how do we help our current group take steps and put them in the position to perform, and we’ll also look to see if there are ways to continue to make the roster deeper and better with external additions. We do feel like we’re better. But the proof is in the pudding. We gotta go play and go do it on the field. We’re excited about that.”
Last year? The Pirates bagged 76 wins. Not too shabby, especially considering it was their best effort since an 82-79 finish back in 2018. You can almost taste the potential brewing in the air. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, and now Mitch Keller are all locked down long-term. Henry Davis, the former No. 1 pick, made his grand entrance last year. Oneil Cruz? Fully recovered from last year’s ankle saga. And there’s more young talent where that came from. Is it enough to make a splash in 2024? Only time will tell. Let’s dive into what’s cooking in Pittsburgh for the upcoming season.
Win total projection, odds
2023 record: 76-86 (fourth in NL Central)
2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 75.5
World Series odds (via SportsLine): +20000
Projected lineup
SS Oneil Cruz, LHB
LF Bryan Reynolds, SHB
3B Ke-Bryan Hayes, RHB
DH Andrew McCutchen, RHB
RF Jack Suwinski, LHB
C Henry Davis, RHB
1B Rowdy Tellez, LHB
CF Michael A. Taylor, RHB
2B Jared Triolo, 2B
An Achilles injury clipped McCutchen’s wings on Sept. 4 last year, but he’s on the brink of 300 career home runs. Manager Derek Shelton might shuffle the deck at the top of the lineup, with McCutchen a prime candidate to lead off. Connor Joe? He’s a righty hitting option waiting in the wings. And don’t forget about the depth in Triple-A, especially infielder and 2020 No. 7 draft pick Nick Gonzales. This lineup’s got some juice. Best in baseball? Probably not. But it’s sure to be a heck of a lot more entertaining than in years past.
Projected rotation
RHP Mitch Keller
LHP MartÃn Pérez
LHP Marco Gonzales
RHP Luis L. Ortiz
RHP Jared Jones
Righty Roansy Contreras and lefties Josh Fleming and Bailey Falter are on thin ice with no minor league options left. They’re the backup dancers to Jones, who’s been lighting it up this spring. Pérez and Gonzales? They’re this year’s version of Rich Hill, seasoned vets ready to pass the torch at the trade deadline. And let’s not overlook Domingo Germán, lurking in camp on a minor-league deal.
Projected bullpen
Bednar is a gem, a Pittsburgh native who’s made the All-Star team twice — and not just as a token Pirates rep. He’s earned it, ranking among the elite relievers for the past three seasons. With free agency looming in three years, it’s crunch time for Cherington & Co. Do they secure Bednar long-term, let him ride out his team control years, or entertain trade offers while his stock is sky-high? Chapman’s a wild ride, but Holderman? He’s the dark horse. If the Pirates are leading after seven, they’ve got the firepower to close it out.
How long until Skenes arrives?
All eyes are on Paul Skenes, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. The kid’s got a cannon for an arm, but he’s starting the season in the minors to polish his changeup. R.J. Anderson has him pegged as the top pitching prospect and No. 10 overall. Despite a “dead zone” fastball, Skenes is expected to make waves. The Pirates, not ones to splash cash on big-name free agents, are banking on homegrown talent like him. If all goes according to plan, we might see Skenes by May, following a Strasburg-esque ramp-up in Triple-A.
What’s the plan with Davis?
Henry Davis, the No. 1 pick back in 2021, is a conundrum wrapped in a riddle. Barely catching in his MLB debut, he’s been mostly seen in right field. But with Endy RodrÃguez out with an elbow injury and Yasmani Grandal sidelined with plantar fasciitis, the Pirates are out of excuses. Davis has been catching plenty this spring, showcasing his power and exit velocity. Regardless of position, Pittsburgh needs his bat to come alive as they pivot from rebuild to contention.
What would make for a successful season?
A winning record and a wild-card chase into the depths of September. That’s the dream. On the field, it’s about winning more than losing and playing games that matter. Off the field, it’s about growth. Hayes building on his stellar second half, foundational pieces like Cruz, Davis, and Skenes stepping up, and others like Gonzales, Jones, Ortiz, and Peguero taking the next step. It’s a development year, but it’s also time for the Pirates to climb the standings and make some noise.
